Weather Blog: Severe Storms Likely Wednesday
It will be a weather-warning Wednesday with several rounds of storms expected and a squall line between 4 p.m. and 10 p.m.
INDIANAPOLIS – As expected, it’s a relatively calm weather day in central Indiana. There is increasing cloudiness from south to north but will have more barks than bites with only a slight chance of showers and/or a thunderstorm much later today. Highs are reaching the upper 60s this afternoon.
There is a chance in extreme southern/southwestern Indiana that any storm forming along an approaching warm front could turn. We’ll be watching, but the most likely area of severe weather today will be in the central United States and centered in eastern Texas and Iowa.
It’s the same system that brings a level 3 (out of 5) severe storm hazard to central Indiana on Wednesday. The remnants of the storms that unleashed in our west today will arrive here Wednesday morning in a weakened but possibly borderline state of severity as wind fields begin to intensify locally.
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Thunderstorms that occur in the morning around noon will impact the potential instability of the atmosphere for thunderstorms later in the day. If these storms leave quickly to allow some sunshine, it increases the potential for great instability and the possibility of supercells. If they lingered longer in the afternoon with their residual cloud cover, it would reduce the potential for supercells. It is impossible to say at this time how this will play out.
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Wind fields modeled later Wednesday are robust at all levels of the atmosphere over central Indiana, keeping significant wind gust potential in play along an expected squall line. This feature is expected to impact the condition between 4 p.m. and 10 p.m., with the potential for damaging gusts and embedded tornadoes.
Gusts over 75 mph and/or significant tornadoes are both possible based on the latest model guidelines. Please prepare your security plan and be ready to take action if necessary.
Bottom line: Storms will be present from start to finish at times and some of them will be severe. We expect watches and warnings to be issued. We’ll have to wait and see how the early today storms evolve and adjust mesoscale detail if necessary.
Be aware of the weather on Wednesday and check back for updates
