Rob Manfred forced me to write a very serious designated hitter blog

I recognize manure when I smell it, but in this case, it’s stuck in my throat. I am long past the state of identification and am well into the process of eating it. Manfred’s message today was basically a remote degree of blunt force trauma to our fucking skulls and it sucks. He could have easily delivered the same points with a simple wave of his hand.

Giphy pictures.

I say that with exception. There is one notable development that has emerged today and that is universal DH. Long awaited and now finally here, the DH has been officially adopted in the National League.

People responded as expected, mostly in the same tone: It’s About Fucking Time. I could spend the next calendar month copy-pasting tweets of this effect into the body of this blog and not putting a dent in available inventory. The people have spoken. This is a good thing.

Personally, I don’t entirely disagree. I’m a sentimental guy, so of course I have emotional assets invested in the sanctity and continuity of Major League Baseball history. But it’s such a sweet place to lay my head at night. I don’t rely on the story of the game to dictate my feelings, but rather on my brain to make informed decisions. So with that in mind let’s talk about the DH.

Let’s really explore space.

HISTORY ANYONE?

baseball flyers – The DH was adopted by the American League in 1973, after a season in which the score fell to 3.47 points per game, the fourth lowest in league history (3.41 in 1968, 3,441 in 1908, 3,443 in 1909). The DH’s intention was primarily to improve scoring, since the changes enacted in 1969 (lowered pitchers’ mound, smaller strike zone) proved to be only a temporary fix.

For anyone objecting to the story, it should be noted that MLB has already changed the scriptures regarding the DH. They did it 49 seasons ago when they originally invented the position. I wasn’t there but I can only imagine the NL egos back then.

Those fucking Yankee pussies

One of the main arguments would have been You can’t drill the opposing pitcher if they don’t hit and it’s just awesome. I will always support public policy arguments rooted in the basic need to demand old-fashioned justice. It’s really funny to think how much the argument has changed over the years. And yet, the need remains. People want more offense. But will they get it?

2020 data

Call for the pen – NL teams scored 4.8 points per game in 2019; with the DH in 2020, this average fell to 4.7. Of the 15 teams, eight saw their offense per game decline even after replacing pitching offenses with their DH’s.

Lots of moving parts here. There are new baseballs and bizarre circumstances of 2020 and a limited sample size from 162. You have different lists and therefore different data points to compare. But there is certainly enough meat on the bone for a statistical meal. The most recent benchmark available shows minimal impact on baseball’s second-to-last statistic: total runs scored.

League against League

National Review – If you only looked at the point totals in the two leagues, you’d be hard pressed to notice the difference in league rules. In recent years, American League games have had 0.12 more points per game than National League games.

This report goes back a few years, but not long enough to compromise the point. There are fractional increases in games with a DH and the explanation continues to emerge over time. The thing is, rookie pitchers collectively aren’t going far enough anymore, and with them, their home plate appearances:

In the National League, less than six percent of plate appearances involve pitchers.

And from there, the AL scores about 2.5% more runs per year than the NL. This is because pitchers are lucky to get two plate appearances per start. The concept of leaving your pitcher with a lead is pretty much dead. The talent and depth of the bullpen is too high. The analyzes have been proven conclusively. There just aren’t many scenarios where a manager has a real decision to make on whether to hit or not. The data is here:

BP – In 1973, 54% of starting pitchers went seven or more innings. In 2016, this figure was only 23%.

So take your strategic argument and stuff it. Managers no longer sweat these decisions. It’s basically science and not art when it comes to eliminating the starting pitcher. There is so much conclusive data for almost every decision. As a result, the underlying conflict that creates even the strategic raison d’être in the first place has gradually diminished. Should we pull it out or pinch it?

If you have to ask, the answer is a pinch.

baseball flyers – AL starters have lasted at least a tenth of an inning longer than their NL counterparts in nine of the 14 years beginning in 1974, the year after the DH was founded. This has only happened four times since 1988.

It’s a side word salad that’s worth shit. The thing is, NL pitchers regularly throw more than AL starters because AL managers are faster to the bullpen. This means NL starters are throwing more pitches even if they are an “auto out” in the lineup.

Takeaway = DH allows for faster pitching changes compared to pitchers hitting for themselves, which means there is MORE bullpen strategy with a DH, not less. This means more demand for developing arms and less for developing bats. Proven Weapons are cheaper than Proven Bats. Do you follow? Because projecting your investments is important in business and now is the time to talk money

Compensation:

Call for the pen – In 2019 – last season’s players received full pay – the average player signed by an American League team to be its primary DH received $13.65 million. That was three times the average salary of $4.35 million for all positions that season. Six of the top 15 DHs were paid more than $20 million, topped by Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera at $30 million. Seven were the highest paid players on their team.

I’m surprised the owners accepted universal DH when I read this. That’s a lot of money. But the flip side is that the NL is having such a hard time attracting free agent sluggers against the AL. You can give more years on a deal in the AL if you know you can move an aging superstar into the DH role. You can carry more defensively limited guys. There’s less emphasis on versatility with your reserves. The AL has been mopping the floor with the NL when it comes to roster construction and predicting plate appearances. The fact that the NL accepted the DH speaks volumes about the owners’ willingness to share the higher costs. Especially when the yield is nominal at best.

Average WAR last year?

1.8

Again: the data is there. DHs are more expensive. They clog your list. They aren’t too valuable relatively speaking. They are not dynamic offensive threats that supercomputers love. They’re older guys with big bats and shitty gloves. You don’t groom a prospect to play DH but rather let really good hitters grow and evolve into the spot. And even so, the race differential from AL to NL is nominal. And the risk of injury is offset by NL starters throwing more pitches and innings. And NL managers aren’t even really strategic with their pitch changes anymore. In fact, it started slowing down over 30 fucking years ago!

Giphy pictures.

So what does all this mean?

The reasons they sell to us is mostly bullshit. It’s not about more offense or making the game more fun. That’s what the owners want you to believe, but if so, then just give the steroids the green light and get out of the way.

Personally, I think the owners want it because there’s more predictability on the roster and the payroll. There is less emphasis on NL clubs to be creative and versatile with their reserves. So you end up solving fewer problems while relying on fewer organizations in the long run, which greatly facilitates the task of the front office. If it doesn’t come with a corresponding permanent 26th spot on the roster, then it’s not good for the player’s association in the long run. By creating a full-time job, you effectively eliminate the 2-3 significant positions that occupied it. The end result = more security for fewer players.

At least that’s how I read it. Maybe I’m wrong, but these DH spots usually don’t go to new except for Yordan. They go to guys who have already broken into the league. So younger guys trying to earn a spot will have less opportunity to pinch and (much more importantly) play on the rest day because you can just shuffle the DH spot. There is more certainty, but that means fewer opportunities.

If that doesn’t make sense, think of it like this:

Owners won’t agree to anything that doesn’t benefit them instantly and objectively. And in conclusion, the offensive advantage is simply not there because of the DH. They accept this because they think it will help them manage costs in the long run, because it is legitimately the only thing they give a damn.

Silver Silver Silver Mo-ney.

MONEY

The most important consideration

We don’t have to watch the pitchers hit anymore. It’s downright painful. That alone should make for a better product and that’s good news and more than enough for the NL to embrace the DH.

But the rest of the material?

They are full of shit. Never forget it.