Putin’s crazy bet for a dead Soviet dream

Putin’s live history lesson on why he is going to start a war was as glorious as it was crazy!

American media said they had to broadcast a Russian leader live giving them a perspective about as close as the confession of the Antichrist.

it’s a fascinating insight into Putin’s paranoia – starting with the Bolshevik revolution with the arguments used by Lenin!

If only America would start wars like this!

I loved how Putin had all of his officials on screen telling him they were fine with his plan so there was no deworming, that in itself is an interesting insight into the balance that Putin will walk with his own military and government.

I think Putin made his call to invade Ukraine when he saw the West attempt a coup in his south last month with the sudden outburst of violence in Kazakhstan.

Russia was always going to send troops to support the government of Kazakhstan, the country is simply too important to Russian strategic interests to allow a revolution to sweep away their pro-Moscow regime.

The Russians have their cosmodrome there, their secret hypersonic missile test area and uranium mines belonging to Russia.

Russia saw this attempted revolution as part of a Hybrid War strategy that America and the West are waging by seeding Western NGOs into civil society to ferment populist uprisings.

For Russia, this is an existential interference in their neighborhood and the likely response was always going to be a pushback from Ukraine with an invasion.

I guess Putin will take eastern Ukraine and carve out strategic assets along the Black Sea. He would need at least 450,000 troops to occupy the whole of Ukraine and he only mobilized 200,000 so I don’t think he is taking over the whole country, he is moving troops into areas already in conflict and will likely win them without a shot being fired in the East, but along the coast where it tries to force its way into Crimea there may well be heavy fighting.

Putin will maintain strong military pressure across the border near Kiev to force the Ukrainian military to defend the capital rather than engage in the east or south.

This will hurt globally…

What a Russian invasion of Ukraine would mean for the global economy

Why is this important: If there were a Russian invasion, not only would there be geopolitical shock waves and human tragedy, but it could also upend markets and put a strain on the global economy.

• • The largest country in the world by land mass, Russia is a commodity giant, ranking among the top producers of natural gas, oil, nickel, palladium, copper, coal, potash, wheat and more.
  • Disruptions to Russian exports — either at the behest of Russian President Vladimir Putin or because of sanctions — would drive up commodity prices, adding to global inflationary pressures and supply chain disarray.

State of play: Russia is the largest supplier of natural gas and crude oil to the European Union.

• • Oil prices briefly jumped above $96 a barrel on Monday – the highest since 2014 – as investors grew nervous about continued access to Russian crude.
  • Natural gas is also a problem. Europe – especially Germany – is most at risk if Russian natural gas supplies stop flowing. More than 20% German gas flows from Russia, so a gas cut to the European economic and export giant could hurt growth and ripple through global supply chains.

Yes, but: The impact of a disruption in Russian commodities would be broader. It is difficult to predict how the dominoes would fall.

To note: High prices are also encouraging US energy production.

What we are looking at:

• • Inflation: If oil prices hit $120 a barrel — as analysts believe it could happen if Russia invades — that could make the recent inflationary surge more durable than economists currently believe. (Central banks are watching. More on that later.)
  • Cars: An invasion could break another link in the shaky automotive supply chain. Russia is the world’s largest supplier of palladium used in catalytic converters that clean up automotive emissions.
  • Wheat: Russia is the world’s third-largest wheat producer — Ukraine, too, is a huge wheat producer — and grain prices could soar in the event of an invasion, even without major disruptions to shipments. (That’s what happened during Russia’s takeover of Crimea in 2014.)
  • Aluminum: When Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska – who controlled Russian aluminum producer Rusal – was sanctioned by the Treasury Department in 2018, it triggered a 30% price spike.

… The focus now is on Biden’s response.

If Biden takes the “nuclear option” of sanctions, he will cancel all international SWIFT banking interaction with Russian banks. Biden is seen domestically as weak after the Afghan fiasco and he will have to show some toughness and the separation of Russian banks from the global banking network is the toughest move he can make.

Russia, which views its invasion of Ukraine as geopolitical even Stevens, will, however, view such a move as a provocation that goes too far rather than a legitimate response.

Maybe it’s the overreaction Putin is looking for to launch a much larger level of conflict chaos?

Consider the following, Russia is responding to Biden’s banking backlash with gray warfare tactics and launching cyberattacks while tearing open conflict in the Middle East by giving Iran the last pieces it needs for its capability nuclear.

Iran’s acquisition of nuclear technology is a red line for Israel and the Russians know it.

Israel responds with a massive military strike never seen before on all Iranian nuclear assets, causing oil prices to skyrocket and supply chains to freeze.

Inflation soars into double digits as global markets implode.

It begins in Ukraine and ends with Israel’s bombardment of Iran.

Watch for China to attempt its own symbolic show of force as Biden deals with Putin.

Constant external geopolitical shockwaves are the new post-Covid normal.

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