Joe’s Weather Blog: Winter and Spring Collide (WED-3/16) | FOX 4 Kansas City WDAF-TV
So far this month, we’ve really seen temperatures swing…and that’s reflected in the averages for March 2022 (so far). We are halfway through and despite the cold and the heat… we are 61st in the average ranking. We have 130 years of records… so it’s about in the middle. We are 0.1° below the average. Overall average.
Even from a humidity point of view, we are also about average for the first 2 weeks of the month. This will change as we will have beneficial humidity over the next 7 days with 2 notable storms. One Thursday later in Friday and another early next week.
The one for the next two days through late Friday evening appears to be the wettest of the 2 storms at this time. The 2nd storm could be a prolific severe weather producer in the southern United States early next week.
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Forecast:
Today: Sunny, breezy and smoother with highs up to the mid-70s
This evening: Clear and sweet with mid to high 40s lows
Tomorrow: Clouds thicken with possible light rain showers mid to late afternoon with increasing coverage towards evening. Highs in the mid 60’s but dropping later in the day with increasing NE winds making things windy at night especially.
Friday: A wintry mix to snow near or after daybreak. Abundant wet snow is possible… some minor accumulations are possible, especially on grassy surfaces, exposed surfaces (patios and cars). Still not sure about road impacts, but some slush is at least possible for a while. Highs in the upper 30s
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Discussion:
The weather promises to be rather active over the next few days since we are witnessing two storms. One of them is growing today in the southwestern part of the country.
You can clearly see the storm developing in the middle part of the atmosphere at around 18,000 feet. As it moves south of the Rockies it begins to organize, then as it moves into the southern Plains it intensifies.
See this U shaped trough moving towards NM then entering OK and MO…it’s the storm and notice how it’s getting stronger…there’s even merging with another disturbance coming from the north which is interesting and shows that it will be a dynamic system as it heads into the region…especially on Friday morning.
As is happening above us… cooler air will begin to flow into the area from the north tomorrow. However, this will only be a gradual process. The center of the country will be rather mild today. So we’ll be taking a phased approach to getting snow around those parts if things come together.
- Let’s take the fresh air to the south 1st. This starts happening around early afternoon as a cold front crosses from north to south. It is likely that we are in the 60s…and there is potential for us to be even hotter…especially south of the front IF the front is even slower…the 70s are on the table. We should start to see a drop in temperature behind the front as the winds shift to the NE and get a bit stronger.
2) As the front moves south and the humidity rises and passes over the front… scattered showers will develop and become more numerous overnight through early Friday. Temperatures will continue to drop into the 30s at dawn on Friday. When this happens, rain and maybe even a few thunderstorms roll through the area overnight.
Here’s how the high-resolution NAM model describes things from a precipitation perspective. Starting at 1 p.m. tomorrow and every 2 hours thereafter.
You can see the snow developing towards the west of the region and turning from Friday around dawn. Typically in these situations you get these big, wet, lumpy snowflakes falling.
3) while all of this is happening…surface temperatures will continue to drop, especially if we get a rotating moderate to almost heavy snow band. The lower they go… maybe down to about 33°… the higher the risk of sticky snow. Snow can melt for a while BUT if it falls hard enough it will stick.
4) One thing that works in our favor however will be the angle of the sun for the 3rd week of September. This, I think, will help the road situation enormously. It is NOT out of the question that there will be slush on the roads… BUT with the sun rising and its energy like what we saw last week… the road conditions might not be too much. bad on the whole… you have to watch the bridges and the viaducts.
5) This may end with light rain at the end as temperatures recover to the mid to upper 30s as Friday progresses.
6) Could be a good soak…1/2″ to 1+” in places that would be a nice recharge for lakes and ponds.
These systems can do some interesting things…especially intensify nearby storms. If there is more cooling of the atmosphere and IF there is more sticky snow coming in faster and heavier…I can see a path where some places get better accumulations about 1″ or so. Heck IF everything falls into place… some might briefly get 2″ before things start to melt away. Not sure if it would be around KC or further N/NW of the subway
Since the storm won’t have cold air to drag it along…we’ll have to make the cold air on its own…the cold air will leave when the storm leaves…so whatever cold we get on Friday night leaves on Saturday and we’re warming well back into the 60s with 70s likely to start spring Sunday.
We’ll see what the next system can do for the region. This could be a severe weather pattern from the southern states, but including tornadoes
The background photo comes from @LlamasRus of a beautiful sunrise this morning.
Jo
