Frost notice, our next storm system

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Hello bloggers,

Thank you for the birthday wishes and wonderful comments over the weekend. I can’t believe I’m 60 and it was a special weekend of surprises, gifts and celebrations with friends! Saturday night I was at a wedding and then ran to get this photo opportunity with Rainbow and Sunny The Weather Dogs. These thunderstorms weakened as they moved into Kansas City. You can see a shelf cloud behind the dogs with a lightning bolt captured in the image above their heads. A few spots had over an inch of rain. More rain is expected this week.

Another cold spell has arrived and a frost advisory and frost warning have been issued for our area. The Kansas City metro area is under a frost advisory for later tonight when temperatures drop into the lower to mid 30s.

Let’s start with the LRC though. We have another possible freeze in our area. Another blizzard just hit North Dakota and Montana. There is a storm system forecast at the end of the week. All of these systems are working and on schedule. Here’s another one in the “you can’t make this up” category.

500MB Debit April 23, 2022

LRC Cycle 1 October 13

Weather 20/20 predicted last weekend’s storm system would arrive in recent days, and it was featured in our weather special on KSHB 41 in March. The top map shows the flow aloft at about 18,000 feet on April 23, 2022, and the second map shows the flow on October 13, 2021, which is 192 days earlier. 192 days divided by three equals 64. And, as many of you know, we have presented the almost 64-day cycle since it developed in October and November. When this system cycled in October, then returned in December, then again in February, we predicted it would return April 20-24. And it happened! The weather model is perfectly adapted to all cycles of the northern hemisphere.

So what’s next? During the first LRC cycle in October, a series of storm systems continued to affect our region and this weekend pattern is on schedule. There are also other influences affecting the model. Here is a model’s surface forecast for Friday:

A strong stern later this week

Another strong surface low is expected to form over the Colorado-Kansas border by Friday. This will draw in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico with a chance of thunderstorms arriving mid to late this week. The storm is expected to transition into another mature, occluded storm system by Saturday as you can see below.

Saturday night surface forecast

Another blizzard is possible over the northern and central plains. Kansas City will eventually move south of the surface storm and it will bring westerly winds on Saturday with a risk of severe weather moving east of Missouri. There is a chance that we have severe risk Friday evening, and there are chances of thunderstorms as this system develops.

Precipitation forecast for the next 6 days

This precipitation forecast shows about 1 inch of rain in our area later this week. We will be discussing this in more depth on our weather forecast today and tonight on KSHB 41.

Freezing conditions tonight

A high pressure ridge will be over western Missouri in the morning helping to bring light winds and clear skies. Conditions are favorable for freezing and frost in our area.

Frost Notice and Frost Warning

I received a nice birthday present, this little olive tree. I put it outside yesterday, and I will bring it in tonight. This is a tree that if I transplant it, which may be difficult for me, will be able to thrive on our outdoor patio. It is supposed to have as much full sun as possible. I’ll see if I have a green thumb.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog and sharing this weather experience. Good week start.

Gary