Followed by rain, more heat before the cold front

Clouds continue to pour into the region, linked to a flow of moisture that originates in Mexico and moves up into the southwestern United States and then into the plains. In this flow, small small waves create periodic chances of rain.

The trick, however, is how long these waves survive as they pass through KS in no real hurry to get to KC.

The problem is that many times the waves subside as they head towards the State Line…so the rains we get are much less dramatic than what radar will show west hours before the rain arrives . It could happen again this afternoon as another wave approaches.

The intense heat was pushed back to Oklahoma and Arkansas, where Wednesday’s highs were around 100. Nashville reached 101°, which was their 1st day above 100° since 2012 (!). Almost 10 years.

Here in KC, we haven’t had a day over 100 since July 12, 2018. However, 100 isn’t coming soon.

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Provide

Today: Mostly cloudy with a few showers or thunderstorms fading later this morning or afternoon. It may not rain much and I can’t promise much coverage. Highs in the lows in the mid 80s

This evening: Another risk of thunderstorms develops before daybreak. Maybe a little more organized. Lows in the upper 60s

tomorrow: Thunderstorms subsiding in the morning with lingering clouds for some time. Tops close to 90° and heavier too.

Saturday: A front should pass later in the day. Tops in the 90-95° range

Sunday: Cooler and less humid. IF things work maybe only in the 70’s. There may be rain in the night from Saturday to Sunday morning.

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Discussion

Let’s start with the satellite image. You can see the moisture coming through the plains.

There’s another disturbance out there west of the metro on Thursday morning.

You can see all the rain this morning well to the west of the region.

Here’s Topeka’s local radar…

There is a lot of rain there but the question is how long does it survive as the atmosphere starts to become less favorable for the rain to hold as it heads east at east of Topeka.

I think something should be heading towards the State Line area, hence why I hit the rain a little harder last night. Certainly not frozen, even this morning.

It is one of many disturbances that have potential, but may not produce much locally.

The overall flow pattern, however, did wonders for the extremely dry weather in parts of the southwest.

Do you remember all the fires that were burning in New Mexico? Many of them were packed down due to excessive rains there and over the next five days. New Mexico is in the sweet spot (most are) for additional rainfall.

The dryness persists but this will help.

On the Kansas side, the drought is still a bit of a problem towards the west of the state…

Central and Eastern KS are however in fairly good condition. There are signs that SW KS could also get decent humidity over the next few days.

Here is the HRRR model showing the progress of the rain towards the west of the area this morning…

Something from the western mass of rain should be coming here, but it doesn’t look too impressive at the moment.

Then later tonight until tomorrow morning, we’ll try again. This time, the warmer air to the south will fight further north.

As we attempt to make this transition, thunderstorms/showers are expected to develop. Again, I can’t promise much Metro coverage at this point. The odds may favor the N/NE areas of the metro, but at least the luck is there around daybreak Friday.

We are moving back into warmer, more humid air Friday and Saturday before a nice cold front kicks in Saturday. This front seems to move in the area during the afternoon between 12:00 p.m. and 6:00 p.m.

If it waits later, we are warmer. If it gets to the start of this frame, temperatures may stabilize north of I-70.

As far as convection goes, something is on the table at least in the afternoon or early evening, especially south of I-70. The problem, however, could be a cap that could put a bit of a lid on things.

Dew points will be in the 70’s (very heavy) ahead and even initially behind the front through Saturday night, and I’m struggling in my “weather head” on how we can transition to temperatures of 15 at 20° cooler and dew points 20-25° less on Sunday without anything happening.

The patterns aren’t too aggressive with the storm risks, but that’s something that can still happen.

Our background photo comes from Matthew Reinschmidt of a hazy sunset from last week.

Joe