Blog about the Margaret Orr hurricane season lull in New Orleans

The tropics have been calm for the past few weeks, but WDSU Chief Meteorologist Margaret Orr wants to make one thing clear: Hurricane season isn’t even close to being over. In his latest blog, Orr explains why a lull in the tropics is normal. 2022 Hurricane Season: We haven’t had a tropical storm since Colin! Dry air in the Atlantic Basin, Saharan dust and upper lows causing strong upper winds have really inhibited development. It is not uncommon to have lulls at this time of year. In 2021, Hurricane Elsa ended on July 9. Tropical Storm Fred did not develop until August 11. It’s been 33 days. There was no lull in 2020. He was on steroids all season. !In 2019, Hurricane Barry ended on July 15. Tropical Storm Chantal developed on August 20. It’s a 36-day lull. NOAA and Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University will update the hurricane season forecast Thursday morning. NOAA’s current forecast is: 14-21 named storms 6-10 hurricanes 3-6 major hurricanes Dr. Phil Klotzbach’s current forecast from Colorado State University is: 20 named storms 10 hurricanes 5 major hurricanes The average est: 14 named storms 7 hurricanes 3 major hurricanes So far this year we have had three tropical storms. We have not started hurricane season early as we have for the past seven years. Alex developed partly from the remnants of Pacific Hurricane Agatha. A large depression has formed near the Yucatan Peninsula. The system was buffeted by strong winds aloft. It crossed into Florida, causing flash flooding in South Florida. It was able to develop in the Atlantic due to weaker wind shear on June 5. It took off to the ENE and passed Bermuda with 70 mph winds, but turned post-tropical on June 6. Bonnie originated from a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on June 23, 2022. It crossed the Atlantic and most of the Caribbean before it could organize and be named Tropical Storm Bonnie. July 1. Bonnie made landfall along the Costa Rica-Nicaragua border with 50 mph winds. The system remained a tropical storm across Central America, and therefore retained the name Bonnie as it moved through the Pacific. The last time a tropical cyclone survived crossing the Atlantic to the Pacific basin was Hurricane Otto in 2016. Tropical Storm Colin formed from an area of ​​low pressure off Savannah , Georgia. It moved ashore in South Carolina, with the depression still close to the Atlantic. Colin developed 50 miles southwest of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina on July 2. Max winds of 40 mph. It didn’t last long. It dissipated to earth on July 3. So the question is: Will we still have an active hurricane season? The answer is yes, but maybe some slight changes, and maybe downwards. We still have a La Nina. This means there are no strong upper-level winds from the southwest to help tear apart tropical systems before they can develop or strengthen. We still have above average water temperatures over much of the major Atlantic Basin development region, and this is fueling tropical development. Water temperatures are below average in parts of the central Atlantic. Saharan dust moved through these cooler waters, blocking incoming solar radiation. Klotzbach also says strong winds across the subtropical Atlantic helped cool those waters. The wind helps move the water around more, so it doesn’t heat up as efficiently. It also brings cooler water from below the surface to the surface. Keep in mind that it only takes one hurricane to cause major problems for all of us. We’ve had years with little activity and a major hurricane. Remember Betsy in 1965. Remember Andrew in 1992. Hurricane season traditionally doesn’t heat up until mid-August through September and into October. The busiest day is September 10. While we’re in a lull, it’s a good time to prepare. We have a long history of major hurricanes in late August and September.