Angry voters and divided opposition in Goa. Who will win?

Our little village in Goa is very quiet, full of sounds of nature – birdsong, dogs barking. The only human-made sounds are the church bells at dawn, the horn of the pohawallah, the fishwallah and the occasional passing two-wheeler. It had been so until Wednesday, when the first tempo went through the village, shouting election songs. Until then, the elections could have taken place on another planet.

On Friday, the “tempo” had increased considerably with three vans passing, some twice. There was even a big political parade at night, a show of force. And today was the loudest – the howl of the speakers drowning out the sounds of nature, committing the sacrilege of disturbing my nap with their exhortations.

With the Covid restrictions until this week, most of the campaigning has been a low-key stroll through the many villages of Goa, or via social media and calls. The “computer” campaign is great; as soon as you visit any news site on the internet, you are attacked by party advertisements for the Goa assembly election. The BJP and TMC appear to be leading in this spending. The AAP is also very active on social media while the Congress seems more restricted, using local calls and contacts.

That all changed mid-week.

The artillery arrived on Thursday. Prime Minister Narendra Modi joined Home Minister Amit Shah in Goa, held a huge rally in the north and continued his attack on Congress, saying Nehru’s weakness had delayed Goa’s independence by 15 year. Arvind Kejriwal, (party call line – Ek Chance Kejriwal) went south and asked how a helipad could be built for the PM in 24 hours but the bus stop at the same place happened in 20 years. He promised an end to endemic corruption in Goa, as he did in Delhi (he said it, not me). TMC General Secretary Abhishek Banerjee was also present, pushing the West Bengal model and hoping to win half a dozen seats. And finally, Rahul Gandhi came on Friday and said that Modi did not understand the story and was trying to distract people from the failed BJP government.

So why is everyone here in a small state with only two MPs when they have bigger fish to fry in UP, Uttarakhand and Punjab? Goa punches well above its waist; it is the tourism capital of India.

For the BJP, it is a state where it displays its secular letters of nobility, with a Christian population at 25%. The BJP has built great bridges with Christians and is once again fielding more than 25% Christian candidates. But above all, the BJP does not like to lose power. In 2017, after trailing Congress in Assembly elections, he moved quickly to trigger overnight defections, in a classic Amit Shah operation, and swore in a BJP-led government. . This Goa model of mass buying MPs was followed in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh, thereafter.

For the Congress, this is an opportunity to erase the shame of 2017 and reemerge as the government of Goa. With a high level of anti-incumbency, Goa, and possibly Uttarakhand, are states where they could seize power. Given the failed victory in Kerala and the loss of governments in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh, Congress desperately needs a victory, and Goa is seen as the perfect place. When BJP strongman Michael Lobo moved to Congress, the signal was that Congress looked like a winner.

The tragedy for Congress is that, like many other states, its vote share has steadily declined, from just under 40% of the vote in 1994 to less than 30% in 2017. Meanwhile , the BJP caught up with Congress in 2002 and has since fired forward.

Manohar Parrikar, the late BJP leader and chief minister, first consolidated the Hindu vote and then formed a coalition with the Christians. If they lost in 2017, it was not so much because Congress did something new, but because Parrikar’s mentor and head of the RSS ran his own “Hindu party” BBSM, which slashed some votes. More importantly, the RSS cadres did not push the BJP so strongly. (1) The BJP came second with 21 seats, including 7 where the margin was less than 10% – an average of 1500 votes.

It is the perceived weakness of Congress and the national ambitions of Mamata Banerjee and Kejriwal that have both in the battle. Goa, with its small electorates (average size 20,000) is a great place to play them. AAP tried it last time but was deeply disappointed, with 6% of the votes. This time they got a lot bigger and spent more money and really want to establish themselves. Kejriwal’s campaign is based on the theme that if you are against the BJP, voting in Congress is a waste because they will all join the BJP after the election. The TMC, with its alliance with the old established MGP, may be more useful to the MGP than to itself, but hopes to be the camel in the tent.

The three fundamental questions surrounding this election are – how strong is the anti-incumbent wave; will the angry voter vote strategically to defeat the BJP, or will they scatter their vote; and will non-BJP winners stay loyal to their party or be persuaded to defect.

That there is a strong anti-incumbent wave is beyond doubt. Ten years of BJP has eroded much of its support. Its greatest strength, they claim, is their karyakartas or workers. Political analysts say that even the BJP worker is fed up with the BJP. They believe that the BJP is neither a Hindutva party nor the Parrikar Party; it’s a motley bag of former congressmen with the working culture of Congress.

That Michael Lobo left the BJP was a clear indication that he felt the BJP had lost ground (see his interview with Sreenivasan Jain) and as he said, as a Parrikar loyalist, it took a lot of time to drive him away, but it was time to move away from this party. As a man who ‘controls’ up to 5 seats in North Goa, his departure is a blow to the BJP.

For the BJP, North Goa is their strength. They have to do well here to hold on to power, and that’s what Michael Lobo helped reduce. They also face the son of Parrikar, Utpal, in Panaji, the capital, another seat where they impose themselves.

And if, as a Goan, you are fed up with the BJP, who do you vote for? Most Goans view voting in transactional terms. You vote for someone you know, who can provide you with what you need, someone you can call and who will at least be there. In a small place like Goa, this is important. Here, Congress and the MGP (the TMC’s ally), in areas where they are traditionally strong, have an advantage. Congress has stressed that its new batch of younger candidates will be “100% accessible.” The list of AAP candidates is a list of unknowns. Will this prevent the voter of Goa from choosing them or will the anger of all the traditional parties drive them to the AAP like in Delhi? This is what Kejriwal is playing for and hoping for.

But three parties seeking to oust the BJP will only split the vote. And such is the fear of the BJP slipping away because of a divided opposition, that Rachol’s (Christian) Seminary, showing its concern, released a video saying, “Divided votes will lead the state into the hands of the corruption and division. party.” With smaller parties and independents regularly voting above 20%, the addition of the AAP and TMC is a concern.

Finally, Goa made Haryana’s ‘Aya Ram Gaya Ram’ look like a second division game. Here in Goa, the tradition of defection comes naturally. This is part of the transactional policy. Ideology does not exist. What happened in 2017 was perhaps the greatest coup, and the one that continued throughout the mandate and into these elections. Sixty percent of deputies – 24 – have changed sides! People were chopping and changing bands like they were playing musical chairs. Aleixo Reginaldo Lourenco left Congress for the TMC and wanted to come back, all in two weeks; fortunately, this time, Congress was strong enough to deny him a seat. He fights as an independent.

In fact, Congress took the unusual step of requiring all of its candidates to attend a temple, church, or dargah, depending on their religion, and take an oath not to defect. The AAP took a more legal route by requiring each candidate to give an affidavit saying so. According to Kejriwal, if one is missing, voters can sue the MP! The BJP does not feel compelled to do so as they are seen as buyers and not sellers in the market. Unless, as one political commentator put it, the BJP is reduced to single digits, which he says is possible, given voter anger.

(Ishwari Bajpai is a senior adviser at NDTV.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.